My Email Open Rates Are at 56% (for a 38K List) While Everyone Else Is Panicking About AI
Everyone in my world is talking about it. Email open rates are dropping. AI is changing what lands in the inbox — and a lot of creators are watching their numbers slide.
And then there's me, looking at my stats and seeing something different.
Last week, my HobbyScool newsletter held steady at 56% open rate. My Creator's MBA list came in at 51.55% — actually a little higher than my usual baseline. While my peers are reporting declines, my lists are holding strong.
That's not a coincidence. And it's not luck.
Here's the thing: the AI inbox revolution is real. But the creators who built their newsletters the right way — strategically, with reader-first value — are not the ones getting filtered out. They're the ones thriving. Let me break down what's actually happening, and why the strategies I teach inside Newsletter Profit Club are making all the difference.
What's Actually Happening in Your Subscribers' Inboxes
Gmail's integration of its Gemini AI model is the biggest shift in email deliverability since the promotional tabs launched in 2013. Here's the short version of what's changed:
Gmail is no longer just a passive inbox. It now acts as an AI-powered gatekeeper — reading every email that comes in, generating summaries, surfacing priority messages, and quietly deprioritizing everything else. The new AI Inbox tab filters for high-priority messages based on sender relationship, content clarity, and engagement patterns. If your email doesn't make the cut, it doesn't get deleted — it just disappears into the noise.
And here's where it gets interesting: open rates are actually going up for some senders — because Gmail's AI appears to auto-open emails to generate summaries, inflating open counts. Meanwhile, click-through rates are falling, because readers feel satisfied after reading an AI-generated snippet and never click through to the full content.
My own click-through rates tell the same story: HobbyScool at 5.22%, Creator's MBA at 2.12% — both healthy for their respective list types and consistent with what I'd expect from engaged, well-segmented audiences. The gap between newsletters built on genuine value and those relying on volume is widening. This isn't bad news for everyone — it's a massive opportunity for creators who have been playing the long game.
Why AI in the Inbox Rewards the Right Approach
Most people assume the AI inbox changes are inherently bad for email marketers. That's only true if you've been relying on volume, vague subject lines, or generic promotional content to drive opens.
What Gmail's Gemini AI actually evaluates comes down to a few key factors: your sender relationship (do subscribers respond, click, and engage?), your content clarity (is the value proposition front-loaded and obvious?), and your engagement patterns over time (do people consistently seek out your emails?).
"Email deliverability is no longer binary — inbox vs. spam. AI creates a gradient of visibility. An email can technically land in the inbox but be effectively invisible if the AI deprioritizes it."
— Folderly Email Deliverability Analysis, 2026This is exactly the kind of environment where a newsletter built on genuine relationship and consistent value wins. And it's exactly what I've been teaching inside Newsletter Profit Club from the start.
The Newsletter Profit Club Approach — and Why It's Working
When I designed the frameworks inside Newsletter Profit Club, the goal was never to game algorithm changes. It was to help creators build newsletters their subscribers genuinely want to open. Turns out, that's also the exact approach that holds up in the age of AI filtering.
Here's what I'm seeing play out in my own numbers — and what NPC members are reporting:
Lead with Value, Every Single Time
Gmail's AI focuses heavily on the first 100-200 characters of your email to generate its summary. If you open with a generic greeting or a long story build-up, you're wasting prime real estate. The Teach and Pitch Method inside NPC trains you to front-load the valuable insight before anything else — which also happens to be exactly what the AI is looking for.
Build a Sender Reputation That Compounds
Traditional sender reputation factors — low spam complaints, proper authentication, healthy list hygiene — still matter. But engagement signals now carry more weight than ever. When subscribers consistently open, click, and reply to your emails, it signals to Gmail's AI that your content is worth prioritizing. NPC teaches you to build that engagement loop deliberately, not by accident.
Write for Humans Who Also Happen to Be Filtered by AI
The content quality checklist for the AI era is remarkably similar to good newsletter writing: clear value propositions, specific takeaways, direct calls to action, and a structure that makes the point obvious. The Mini Magazine Method I teach inside NPC creates exactly this kind of scannable, high-value email format — one that resonates with readers and passes the AI filter.
Segment and Send to the Right Readers
One of the fastest ways to tank your sender reputation under the new AI filtering is to send frequently to people who don't engage. Gmail's new "Manage subscriptions" feature gives readers a one-click way to unsubscribe, and a spike in unsubscribes signals low value. Inside NPC, we talk about how to keep your list clean, segmented, and engaged — so every send reinforces your reputation rather than eroding it.
What "AI in the Inbox" Means for How You Monetize
Here's where things get strategically interesting for newsletter creators.
Click-through rates are dropping industry-wide because readers feel satisfied after reading AI-generated email summaries. If your entire monetization model depends on readers clicking through to your offer, that's a real problem.
But if you're using a framework like the Teach and Pitch Method — where the value and the offer are both clearly communicated inside the email itself — you're insulated from this shift. The reader gets the insight. They see the invitation. The click is a conversion step, not the only point of exposure.
The creators most at risk from AI inbox changes are those using email as a pure traffic channel — driving clicks to external content. The creators best positioned are those using email as the primary value delivery vehicle, where the offer is woven naturally into the content. That's the Newsletter Profit Club model.
This also means your subject line strategy needs to evolve. When AI summaries compete with your email content, a subject line that promises one thing and delivers another is a recipe for disengagement — and a damaged sender reputation. The subject lines that work in 2026 are the ones that accurately preview a specific, clear value inside the email.
What I'm Not Worried About (and Why You Shouldn't Be Either)
Most people assume that when something changes algorithmically, the right move is to scramble and adapt. But what I've found — both in my own data and watching NPC members — is that the creators who are holding strong didn't have to change anything. The strategies were already aligned with what the AI is now rewarding.
This is the flywheel in action. When you build your newsletter around Attracting the right audience, Engaging them consistently, Nurturing the relationship, and Retaining subscribers who actively look forward to your emails — you create a compounding asset. The AI inbox changes don't disrupt that flywheel. They accelerate it for the creators who've been doing it right.
My 56% HobbyScool open rate and 51.55% Creator's MBA open rate aren't anomalies. They're evidence of what happens when you build an email list the right way from the start — and keep reinforcing the right behaviors over time.
If your open rates are sliding and you're wondering what to do, the answer isn't a new hack. It's the fundamentals: value-first content, a strong sender relationship, and a monetization strategy that works whether subscribers click or not.
That's what we build inside Newsletter Profit Club. And right now, it's working exactly as designed.
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Gmail's Gemini AI is now filtering, summarizing, and prioritizing emails before readers see them. Emails with generic, low-value content are getting deprioritized — effectively invisible even when they technically reach the inbox. This is causing many creators to see declining open rates, especially if their content lacks clear value, strong subject lines, and a consistent sender reputation.
Gmail's AI evaluates the clarity, structure, and value of every email before surfacing it prominently to users. Emails that front-load value, have clear structure, and come from trusted senders get priority placement. Emails that bury the point or use generic promotional language get deprioritized — leading to lower opens even with good deliverability.
Industry benchmarks vary, but anything consistently above 30-40% is solid for creator newsletters. Open rates of 50%+ indicate a highly engaged, well-segmented audience with strong sender reputation. If your rates are dropping significantly below 25-30%, it's a signal to audit your content quality, subject line strategy, and list hygiene.
The strategies that work in the AI inbox era include: sending consistently to a segmented, engaged audience; front-loading value in the first 100-200 characters; writing clear, specific subject lines that match your content; maintaining a strong sender reputation through regular engagement; and teaching readers to expect and look for your emails.
The key is building a newsletter that readers actively want to open — not one that competes on volume. By focusing on value-dense content, consistent delivery, and strategic monetization frameworks like the Teach and Pitch Method, you build an audience that seeks out your emails rather than waiting to have them surfaced by an AI. Programs like Newsletter Profit Club teach exactly these strategies.
